There was only ever one certain outcome to the military coup that ousted Mohamed Morsi as Egypt’s president last week. The shooting of Islamists on Monday bears grim witness to the tensions that have been unleashed as different interest groups wrestle for power.
It is still not clear who provoked the violence. Islamists blame the military, while the army blames terrorists for opening fire during the dawn prayers of Muslim Brotherhood protesters calling for Mr Morsi’s return. But the desire for vengeance in both camps is rising, and so is the prospect of civil war.
There is an urgent need for those who claim to have Egypt’s interests at heart to avert this outcome by acting responsibly. The military, which is now in charge, has been stepping up its crackdown on the Brotherhood. It is intimidating the group by rounding up its members, switching off Islamist broadcasting and closing its Cairo headquarters.
Yet forcing the Brotherhood underground would be disastrous. It would encourage some members to conclude that only violence can deliver political goals, as happened in Algeria after a military coup locked Islamists out of the political system in the 1990s.
The Brotherhood, meanwhile, is calling for an uprising against “those who want to steal our revolution” – which means more violence. Yet it was never the Brotherhood’s revolution. Mr Morsi’s bungled approach to government, setting religion above social cohesion and pressing economic needs, had eroded his legitimacy as president before the military moved. If the Brotherhood is serious about wanting to represent Egypt’s interests it should compromise on new elections to avoid more violence.
Meanwhile, Egypt’s allies should use all the leverage they have to encourage the parties to negotiate. Washington has not described the military’s actions as a coup. That would jeopardise the $1.3bn in military aid it sends to Cairo every year. The betting in Egypt is that Washington will never cancel that cheque, which has long guaranteed US strategic interests such as ensuring access to the Suez Canal and helping to secure Israel’s southern flank. Yet if there is any indication that the army provoked Monday’s violence, military aid should be suspended. It would also focus minds if Washington were to warn that further aid will be conditional on fresh elections.
The US should be wary of sitting on the sidelines while the risks of strife increase. There is no more obvious threat to its regional interests than a divided Egypt.
Source: Financial Times
