The dollar skidded to its lowest levels against the yen since November 2014 on Tuesday, as a sell-off in European and U.S. stocks continued into the Asian session and stoked demand for the perceived safe-haven Japanese currency.
The dollar was last at 114.85 yen JPY=, down 0.9 percent, after dropping as low as 114.205.
“What a panic situation,” said Kaneo Ogino, director at foreign exchange research firm Global-info Co in Tokyo. “European funds have been selling dollar-yen since this morning, and it broke through the barrier options around 115.”
The flight to safety helped the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond turn negative for the first time, sending it as low as minus 0.035 percent JP10YTN=JBTC.
JGBs have been on a bull run since the Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates on Jan. 29, under which banks have to pay interest on certain deposits held at the BOJ. The central bank’s announcement initially sent the dollar as high as 121.70 yen, before those gains unravelled.
“In terms of safety, the yen could actually be the most attractive currency right now, which I’m sure the policymakers don’t want to hear,” said Bart Wakabayashi, head of foreign exchange for State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.
Three-month dollar/yen implied volatility – an indicator of how much currency movement is expected in coming months – jumped as high as 13.120 percent JPY3MO= on Tuesday, its highest since September 2013, as the yen soared.
YELLEN IN FOCUS
With many Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, thin conditions might have amplified trading moves, market participants said. Most markets in the region will open from Wednesday, with Chinese markets returning next week.
Investors will pay even more attention than usual to the testimony of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, seeking any clue to the strength of the U.S. economy that might underpin the dollar by keeping alive hopes that the central bank may continue on its rate-hiking path.
“The focus is now on Yellen’s comments tomorrow, and how she’ll respond to these latest market conditions,” Ogino said.
The euro added about 0.1 percent to $1.1208 EUR= after bouncing off Monday’s low around $1.1086. The common currency benefited from a negative correlation with European stocks, which slumped to their lowest in more than two years.
Against the buoyant yen, however, the euro gave up about 0.8 percent to 128.60 yen EURJPY=, after drooping as low as 128.315. A break of last month’s low of 126.17 yen would make the April 2015 low of 126.08 the next target.
The Swiss franc, another traditional safe haven, rose as high as 0.9817 CHF= against the U.S currency, its loftiest peak since December. The dollar was last down 0.3 percent at 0.9840 francs.
Japan’s Nikkei .N225 ended down 5.4 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was off 1.2 percent, and might have fallen further if not for holidays in many Asian financial centres.
On Monday, concerns over the health of the region’s banks compounded worries over slowing global growth which prompted investors to dump financial stocks. Shares in Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) dropped 9.5 percent, leading decliners on Europe’s Stoxx 50 index .STOXX50. The U.S. S&P 500 .SPX fell 1.4 percent.
Not helping sentiment, figures released over the weekend showed China’s foreign reserves fell for a third straight month in January, as the central bank dumped dollars to defend the yuan and prevent an increase in capital outflows.
“Question marks still remain over China’s ability to control its currency, even though the fall in FX reserves was smaller than expected,” said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank.
The flight to safety was particularly evident in the Australian dollar’s performance against the yen, a pair often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite.
The Aussie has shed more than 4 percent over the past three sessions, and was down 1.7 percent at 80.68 yen AUDJPY=R after falling as low as 80.21.
The Aussie managed to hold more of its ground against the greenback, staying above 70 U.S. cents AUD=D4 but still down 0.8 percent at $0.7033.
Source: Reuters
