The dollar dropped from a two-week high Monday, with a stronger oil price the chief theme in a market battening down the hatches ahead of central bank policy meetings in Japan and the United States.
Commodity-linked currencies including the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars were all half a percent higher in early trade in Europe as crude rose 1.5 percent on the back of speculation about OPEC production controls.
Moves in the euro, yen and dollar were limited, with investors eyeing the chances of a shift in the Bank of Japan’s policy toolkit and a U.S. Federal Reserve statement that points more clearly to a rise in interest rates this year.
Expectations of a rise in U.S. rates this week have steadily evaporated, prodding the dollar lower until Friday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data. But there is speculation that officials will start the ball rolling for a December move.
“We believe there is very little downside risk left to the dollar from here,” said Manuel Oliveri, a strategist at Credit Agricole in London.
“Today looks a bit corrective. It doesn’t make much sense to expect this to continue on the back of all the risk events coming up this week.”
The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 95.888. Friday’s rise was the dollar’s biggest daily gain since late June. The euro was flat at $1.1159.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures imply a 55 percent chance of the Fed raising interest rates by December, compared to around 47 percent before the inflation data, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
The Bank of Japan is due to conduct a comprehensive review of its current policy framework that combines negative interest rates with a massive asset-buying program.
Speculation is rife it will change tack in favor of a policy mix that ups stimulus while also protecting banks from the problems generated by putting negative interest rates on deposits.
Either way, faith in Tokyo’s ability to weaken the yen has been fading steadily, with bets on further gains by the yen still the dominant positive position in major FX markets.
The yen gained 0.2 percent against the dollar to 102.075 in trading thinned by a Japanese holiday.
Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation in Singapore, said that unless the BOJ surprises by adopting some form of radical policy easing, the yen will probably strengthen.
“Unless they were to say that they will buy foreign bonds or something like that, the yen will probably rise,” he said.
Source: Reuters
