China’s aviation fuel consumption is likely to grow by 13.1per cent this year due to an increase in passenger travel; however, its crude oil imports may stay unchanged, according to a forecast by the research arm of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), Reuters reported on Wednesday.
CNPC’s Economic and Technology Research Institute (ETRI) predicts that aviation fuel consumption will reach 39.3 million metric tonnes this year. They also forecast a slight increase of 0.1 per cent in crude oil imports, amounting to 565 million metric tonnes, or approximately 11.3 million barrels per day.
As China’s international air travel demand starts to bounce back in the post-COVID market, experts anticipate a further increase in kerosene demand this year.
However, international traffic was still only at 53 per cent of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2023, according to LSEG data. Wang Lining, who leads the oil markets research unit at ETRI, has described this period as one of rapid growth and recovery for kerosene consumption.
Wang suggests that, due to the growth in per capita incomes and enhancements in air transportation facilities, there’s still potential for an increase in China’s kerosene demand.
ETRI predicts that China’s kerosene demand will hit 54 million tonnes by 2030 and reach its peak in 2040. Meanwhile, economic factors are reducing diesel demand, crucial for logistics and construction, with CNPC forecasting a 2.8 per cent decrease this year to 196 million metric tonnes.
On the other hand, CNPC anticipates a 1.3 per cent increase in gasoline consumption, amounting to 165.1 million metric tonnes.
Forecasts from analysts suggest that the demand for gasoline in China may reach its highest point between 2024 and 2025 due to the rapid introduction of electric vehicles (EVs). They predict that EVs will make up 40 per cent of the estimated 23 million total auto sales this year.
