China’s exports jumped 48.3 percent in February from a year earlier – the strongest in nearly five years that comfortably beat market expectations – while imports slipped 20.5 percent, the General Administration of Customs said on Sunday.
That produced a record trade surplus of $60.6 billion for the month.
That compared with market expectations in a Reuters poll of a rise of 14.2 percent in exports – following a 3.3 percent drop in January – and an 10 percent fall in imports and a trade surplus of $10.8 billion.
Analysts tend to look at the combined trade data for the two months to help smooth out distortions caused by the long Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in mid-February this year but in early February in 2014.
The customs office said local exporters usually make concentrated shipments ahead of the new year, which may have distorted export figures for January and February.
For the first two months of 2015, exports rose 15 percent from a year ago, while imports fell 20.2 percent.
China’s exports rose an annual 6.1 percent in the whole of 2014, while imports inched up 0.4 percent.
Imports have been weaker than exports, highlighting the need to spur domestic demand amid fears of deflation, as some short-term investors are pulling out of the country – indicated by sustained capital outflows in recent months.
Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said on Saturday that he expected China’s combined exports and imports to return to growth in March and he was confident of meeting annual trade growth target of 6.1 percent in 2015.
Analysts expect the government to roll out more stimulus steps this year to support the slowing economy, which has been hurt by a property downturn, excess factory capacity and erratic exports.
Despite China’s solid trade surplus, a string of weak data has put some pressure on the yuan CNY=CFXS against the dollar. But analysts say the yuan’s modest 1 percent fall versus the dollar so far this year may not help exporters much, given that it has risen against other currencies.
Indeed, a private manufacturing survey showed export orders shrank in February despite a slight pick up in factory activity.
The government has set an economic growth target of around 7 percent for this year, below the 7.5 percent goal that was narrowly missed in 2014, but analysts believe more policy support is needed to arrest the slowdown.
China plans to run its biggest budget deficit in 2015 since the global financial crisis, stepping up spending as Premier Li Keqiang signaled that the lowest rate of growth in a quarter of a century is the “new normal” for the economy.
The central bank has cut interest rates twice since November, on top of a cut in bank reserve requirements in early February, amid concerns about deflationary risks as growth slows.
Source: Reuters
