The resilience of Israel’s debt issuers is at stake if a conflict stretches on, impairing economic activity and policymaking, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report on Wednesday.
While Israel’s sovereign credit profile has shown resilience to Palestinian resistance attacks and military operations in the past, that could be tested by a protracted period of war, analysts led by Atsi Sheth wrote in a note.
“How this conflict affects credit risk across the public, financial and corporate sectors will depend on its scale and duration, which is far from clear at this time,” the analysts further wrote. Still, “the conflict could have implications for the Israeli debt issuers we rate.”
The cost to insure Israeli bonds against a potential default has jumped by 45 basis points this week to 104, the highest in almost a decade. In April, Moody’s lowered the outlook on Israel’s A1 rating to stable from positive, citing a “deterioration of Israel’s governance.”
Global growth and inflation trends could also witness potential consequences in a scenario that sees military activity escalate in the region, especially if widespread sanctions or additional blockades emerge, according to Moody’s.
“Any further disruption in energy and financial markets is likely to dampen sentiment and test the resilience of global credit conditions,” the analysts said.